International market flow rules. First of all, the problem of financial market supervision, in the current market, is it insufficient supervision or excessive supervision. Prior to the outbreak of the loan crisis, the speculation of hedge funds has led to the ups and downs of the international financial market, which has attracted the attention of international recovery. Germany and France advocate strict supervision, and the United States and Britain's right are not conducive to the development of the financial market. It also advocates that after the Enable incident is formulated, "Sax Fa". As a result, he indulged the mad speculation of hedge funds and "achieved" the subprime crisis. The brutal facts prove that financial liberalization is not free to do whatever you want. The cost of not in place is very heavy. Strict prudential supervision should be synchronized with the development of financial liberalization. Supervision is not intervention. and recently believed that CEOs of some international financial institutions should ride to justice. The manufacturer of the subprime mortgage bubble is no different from fraud. Selling virtual wealth as property to investors should bear legal responsibility. If the foam product is defined as "property", you must protect property rights. The foam is broken, and "property" and "disappear" should be responsible. Investors should be responsible, bubble manufacturers should be more responsible. Related legal and systems need to be formulated, sanctions and restraint. Maintain fair financial order and economic order. Woman government should strengthen the forward -looking supervision of the foam, rather than the huge cost of spending after the bubble is shattered, including the rescue of huge moral risks. The impact on the US economy and the global economy cannot be judged so far. During the formation of the foam, the foam was pierced instead of waiting for the huge blasting of the foam expansion, which minimized the loss. In the past, the old generations advocated not to control the bubble, and said that the foam would be formed. The fact is that after the foam is formed, the situation will not be controlled. Whether you should innovate thinking about regulatory ideas. The game rules in the international financial market should be revised. Financial capital cannot be large -scale finance markets that are priced at pricing for relationships. Otherwise, disrupt economic order and disturb the financial market. The most important thing is that the large -scale financial commodity market of financial capital affects the basic price formation mechanism that determines the balance price of commodities, which violates the basic principles of economics and greatly distorted the price formation mechanism of the commodity. The surveys made by the Chicago Commodity Exchange at the request of the US Congress showed that the recent increase in oil prices by 70%was due to the promotion of speculative capital. These financial securities capital does not have any demand for oil, and does not require oil supply. Pure speculation prices make money. Therefore, speculative capital has a strong motivation to promote the rise in oil prices. Recently, there have been reports that the Chicago Commodity Exchange's survey report has improved, with 81%of non -industry transactions. The market for financial capital or speculative capital is an asset market, not a general commodity market. In other words, there is no effectiveness of this market at all. It is impossible to reach the balance of supply and demand by the satisfaction of the use of the product, thereby forming a balanced price. The speculative capital is not separated from the commodity market, and the prerequisite for the basic price theory of economics is destroyed. As a result, speculative capital uses the demand supply relationship that seems to be the same, and continuously pushes the price. The breakthrough of the new order of global finance may start from the relative division of the commodity market and the asset market. The commodity market, including the commodity market, should be separated from pure investment markets and allow hedge funds to enter. For example, if China forms a exchange rate mechanism based on supply and demand relationship, it cannot be subject to interference from the NDF market with no RMB and no RMB market. The financial capital does not participate in any actual economic activities, and the demand for financial activities for monetary functions belongs to "speculative demand". Speculative demand is not like the needs of ordinary commodities, and the utility is limited to reach a balanced level. After the supply of goods increases to a certain degree, after fully meets the demand for maximizing utility, the market will reach balanced supply and demand, and the price will be stable at the level of supply and demand. The speculative demand is actually "making money". The effective function of "making money" should be infinite, and there is no balanced price. we noticed that "speculative demand", especially the "speculative demand" of the RMB in the international market, has no demand for the renminbi at all, and does not require the supply of RMB. The NDF market is finally conducted by the US dollar transaction, which is a "game" or "gambling" in the exchange rate price of RMB to the US dollar. So relying on supply and demand relationships to determine the price of the price and exchange rate, and the financial capital of the financing book exported hedging demand should restrict the entry of large -scale financial capital, otherwise it will seriously disturb the market order. The securitized product is decentralized risks. A bank securitization product is the risk of decentralized stamp banks. All bank loans are securitized. The securitization product of 100 million products, the market value of the product exceeds the total amount of GDP, is not decentralized. Especially if the holders of all products are the same in the end, which means that the spacing of risks is given. It is just different risks to each part. As a result, a systematic risk is the risk of the overall market. It is like the exhaust emissions of each car, but the tail gas emissions of the three million cars are pollution. Especially when the space for emissions is given. This in the middle of the statistics, there is a famous conclusion in the middle, the results of small samples and large samples are different. Large theorem, small samples are divergent, and large samples are converged. A single "innovative" product is the purpose of the designed, but the scale cannot be enlarged infinitely. Any product should have design capacity, and if the production capacity limit is forcibly increased production, safety is needed. The transaction system, the transaction error occurs, and there is no problem in the operation program. The reason is that the transaction energy of the unit time is exceeded. The feedback of the transaction information is a completely correct operation that leads to serious mistakes. The Tokyo Exchange has occurred several times that suddenly stopping the transaction, which is related to the maximum design capacity of the trading system. The subprime crisis is also a foam of a foam of a financial innovation without risk. The concepts to change. First of all, financial innovation still needs to return to the basic concept. Financial innovation cannot eliminate risks. The gentleness is that it can only manage the risks. Therefore, we must have the setting of the total capacity of the passing risk of financial product innovation. Financial innovation exceeds market capacity, that is, to create system risks, create market risks, and create a financial crisis. Secondly, starting from the basic role of financial innovation risks, the financial derivative product market is a zero -sum game. Therefore, derivative products should be launched with the goal of hedging risk, not very suitable for the goal of investment tools. The characteristics of leverage transactions are amplifying funds and amplifying income while amplifying risks. The comparative advantage of the financial service industry in developed countries is very large. The intermediaries that provide all -round financial services are financial institutions in the United States and Europe, which promotes financial liberalization to meet the economic interests of strong financial countries. The United States and Europe have huge motivations to comprehensively promote the rapid expansion of financial globalization, especially to emerging markets. Take explosive global financial expansion. The core content of the so -called financial bang is to promote emerging markets to accelerate the comprehensive opening of the financial market, including, banks, securities, insurance, all financial fields, relax the entry threshold for foreign financial companies, relax capital control, and flow capital freely. Finally, the globalization of the domestic financial system is realized. This, this comprehensive, explosive global financial expansion is very dangerous for emerging markets. The financial liberalization process of emerging markets should be developed in an orderly manner. Gradually developing, not going forward, not being too excited, can't learn to go, just want to run. The admission to the appropriate proportion of foreign banking institutions, truly providing valuable financial service products, such as the financial advisory service of listed companies, or the value improvement of the value of listed companies, the risk management of banks and other financial institutions Technical and consulting services, more flexible reform of the exchange rate mechanism, the local currency is gradually exchanged, and so on. In short, it is necessary to speed up the construction and improvement of the domestic financial system, and it is very important to synchronize with financial opening. In the process of financial liberalization, it is necessary to control any external impact status. If re -thinking about these issues, not only the bubble crisis will be manufactured again and again, but emerging market countries will pass a passive crisis and pay for the crisis. More importantly, re -thinking about the reasons for the manufacturing subprime crisis and the deep problems of financial development, and continue to follow the crisis ideas and the financial development of emerging markets. Essence It is necessary to protect yourself, establish a fair international financial system suitable for the development of the national financial industry at the stage of development, and emerging markets must economic participation in the formulation of game rules. Like the multilateral negotiation consultation of the WTO, the formulation of international trade rules, the establishment of a multilateral negotiation mechanism, considering the interests of various countries, and establishing a new order of international finance. The rules cannot be formulated by strong countries and regions. The China has successfully avoided the impact of the Asian financial crisis, and it should be able to certainly have a certain degree of shock -absorbing subprime crisis. We need to study our own experience and the lessons of the subprime crisis to make China a better financial country internationally and in some countries. Other countries are not harmed. Domestic demand to increase grain price "Looking" reporter: How should China lose its loss in the subprime crisis? How does Chinese finance innovate and how to innovate? Question: In the case of the subprime crisis, how can China take some countermeasures to minimize its loss? The so -called financial innovation is a very important aspect of the financial industry. Within the scope of our cognitive, the most important point of financial innovation is derivatives, which is a virtual thing. You have said that the economy of financial innovation Wall Street has collapsed. How can Chinese finance innovate and innovate under this premise? Zuo Xiaolei: My point is not necessarily right. How to prevent the financial crisis in China, I just said that it may have been shocking its impact. Its influence on China has discussed more exports because of foreign needs. The impact of this external demand, I think we have no direct way because it is an external problem and we have no problem ourselves. Exports are affected by the subprime crisis, the economic affected by my country's economy, and the decline in foreign demand. Then you use domestic demand. From the perspective of economic growth, foreign demand has declined and exports are affected. Then our domestic demand increases. Os how to stimulate domestic demand? There are many topics. I said this topic at the Changan Club today. What stimulates domestic demand to stimulate? The stimulus general consumption, which is generally consumption, mainly farmers and low -income groups have a lot of room for growth. From the perspective of cities, general consumer goods are still relatively satisfied. If you are concerned about consumption, you must pay attention to low -income groups and rural areas. How to improve their consumer level? The most critical of their income is to grow, because these low -income groups have a lot of consumption, you add 200 yuan to you, he takes these 200 yuan to buy, drink, buy and wear. At 1,000 yuan, he may not take 50 yuan because he has been satisfied with basic consumption. In this case, it is necessary to increase the low -income income in rural areas. So how to increase the income of low -income people? The government has asset subsidies, as well as free rural education, and the reduction in expenditure is also a increase in income. This is one aspect, but this is not enough. Because you can't subsidize him forever, and your subsidies to his production materials, now the growth of fertilizers and pesticides is very large, and your subsidy cannot keep up with its rise. Therefore, if you do n’t make money, you do n’t plant food, so you do n’t plant food. This will also affect the safety of food. You can only have a long and stable growth mechanism for him to plant food. we should encourage him to plant food and increase his income, regardless of which perspective, and increase the price of grain prices. The rise in prices allows him to make money to make money and earn this way. In this way, the income of farmers will grow, and the consumption of farmers will definitely increase, and it will definitely bring economic growth contribution. It the acquisition of food prices has increased, what about inflation? We say that the government can not increase the sales price when the flow is increased. For example, the purchase price increases two dollars, and the sales price does not increase and sells the original price, but the government supplements him for two dollars. Where does the money come from? We now raise oil prices, and the price of oil price is not reduced to reduce Sinopec subsidies. We will take the financial funds to subsidize the price of food and food in circulation, because food prices and food prices account for a very large proportion of CPIs. After we subsidize this way, the CPI will not rise, and inflation will not rise. The as farmers' income increased, continued to grow, consumption growth, the economy also rose, and this subsidy method was also very fair in terms of transfer payment fairness. Everyone eats food and food, and it is very good in terms of fairness and benefits. I say this hopes to be adopted. I think we can take this way to do this way. The innovation in China is like this. We can't kill it in one pole. Innovation is wrong, it is not the meaning. I said just now that the scale is limited. The first development of derivative products was not launched with the concept of investment products. In the 1970s, derivative products have developed greatly. It is to prevent the risk of changes in exchange rates and interest rates. Therefore, many derivative products were born at that time. It was about how to help export enterprises to prevent exchange rate risks and help enterprises to prevent interest rate risks. Essence But it can ensure that trading companies will not lose money, and Wall Street products have developed like this for a long time. But in the 21st century, it sounded well to flourish, and it was not good to say that derivative products began to develop crazy. China may prevent the risk of derivative products for a long time. The ideas for the launch of our stock index futures are not right, because our market is a unilateral market, only the market can make money, and the market declines cannot make money. Therefore make money. The risk of stock index futures as an investment product. At the beginning, we must prevent risks. At the beginning, retail investors cannot go in. Why can't we enter? We must first correct this concept. For a long time, this product is to prevent risks. . Our market is very primitive, and our investors must continue to mature. At this time, we must be particularly careful. We must not innovate risks and we must prevent risks. It is definitely not that we do n’t want to innovate. I mean that I ca n’t myths, I can disperse risks but cannot myths. It turns out that you will make a big risk when you myths have myths. This is my opinion that I don't necessarily be right. Economists are too rational. It domestic demand to increase grain price "Looking" Reporter: How should China lose its loss to the smallest in the subprime crisis? How does Chinese finance innovate and how to innovate? Question: In the case of the subprime crisis, how can China take some countermeasures to minimize its loss? The so -called financial innovation is a very important aspect of the financial industry. Within the scope of our cognitive, the most important point of financial innovation is derivatives, which is a virtual thing. You have said that the economy of financial innovation Wall Street has collapsed. How can Chinese finance innovate and innovate under this premise? Zuo Xiaolei: My point is not necessarily right. How to prevent the financial crisis in China, I just said that it may have been shocking its impact. Its influence on China has discussed more exports because of foreign needs. The impact of this external demand, I think we have no direct way because it is an external problem and we have no problem ourselves. Exports are affected by the subprime crisis, the economic affected by my country's economy, and the decline in foreign demand. Then you use domestic demand. From the perspective of economic growth, foreign demand has declined and exports are affected. Then our domestic demand increases. Os how to stimulate domestic demand? There are many topics. I said this topic at the Changan Club today. What stimulates domestic demand to stimulate? The stimulus general consumption, which is generally consumption, mainly farmers and low -income groups have a lot of room for growth. From the perspective of cities, general consumer goods are still relatively satisfied. If you are concerned about consumption, you must pay attention to low -income groups and rural areas. How to improve their consumer level? The most critical of their income is to grow, because these low -income groups have a lot of consumption, you add 200 yuan to you, he takes these 200 yuan to buy, drink, buy and wear. At 1,000 yuan, he may not take 50 yuan because he has been satisfied with basic consumption. In this case, it is necessary to increase the low -income income in rural areas. So how to increase the income of low -income people? The government has asset subsidies, as well as free rural education, and the reduction in expenditure is also a increase in income. This is one aspect, but this is not enough. Because you can't subsidize him forever, and your subsidies to his production materials, now the growth of fertilizers and pesticides is very large, and your subsidy cannot keep up with its rise. Therefore, if you do n’t make money, you do n’t plant food, so you do n’t plant food. This will also affect the safety of food. You can only have a long and stable growth mechanism for him to plant food. we should encourage him to plant food and increase his income, regardless of which perspective, and increase the price of grain prices. The rise in prices allows him to make money to make money and earn this way. In this way, the income of farmers will grow, and the consumption of farmers will definitely increase, and it will definitely bring economic growth contribution. It the acquisition of food prices has increased, what about inflation? We say that the government can not increase the sales price when the flow is increased. For example, the purchase price increases two dollars, and the sales price does not increase and sells the original price, but the government supplements him for two dollars. Where does the money come from? We now raise oil prices, and the price of oil price is not reduced to reduce Sinopec subsidies. We will take the financial funds to subsidize the price of food and food in circulation, because food prices and food prices account for a very large proportion of CPIs. After we subsidize this way, the CPI will not rise, and inflation will not rise. The as farmers' income increased, continued to grow, consumption growth, the economy also rose, and this subsidy method was also very fair in terms of transfer payment fairness. Everyone eats food and food, and it is very good in terms of fairness and benefits. I say this hopes to be adopted. I think we can take this way to do this way. The innovation in China is like this. We can't kill it in one pole. Innovation is wrong, it is not the meaning. I said just now that the scale is limited. The first development of derivative products was not launched with the concept of investment products. In the 1970s, derivative products have developed greatly. It is to prevent the risk of changes in exchange rates and interest rates. Therefore, many derivative products were born at that time. It was about how to help export enterprises to prevent exchange rate risks and help enterprises to prevent interest rate risks. Essence But it can ensure that trading companies will not lose money, and Wall Street products have developed like this for a long time. But in the 21st century, it sounded well to flourish, and it was not good to say that derivative products began to develop crazy. China may prevent the risk of derivative products for a long time. The ideas for the launch of our stock index futures are not right, because our market is a unilateral market, only the market can make money, and the market declines cannot make money. Therefore make money. The risk of stock index futures as an investment product. At the beginning, we must prevent risks. At the beginning, retail investors cannot go in. Why can't we enter? We must first correct this concept. For a long time, this product is to prevent risks. . Our market is very primitive, and our investors must continue to mature. At this time, we must be particularly careful. We must not innovate risks and we must prevent risks. It is definitely not that we do n’t want to innovate. I mean that I ca n’t myths, I can disperse risks but cannot myths. It turns out that you will make a big risk when you myths have myths. This is my opinion that I don't necessarily be right. Economists are too rational.
p.s I really didn't find the materials in this area .. But I really want to help you .. I just searched it ... M n ... I suggest you take a look at the evaluation of Dubai's question and then combine the situation of China .. See if you can summarize what you have .. Anyway, because you only have this idea because you can only have this .. Although I want to help, I can only help you check some information
In fact, you can also check this kind of information. I can also check it ... I am not very knowledgeable .. I didn't get in touch with this financial problem ... Sorry to pull .. I tried my best
The most powerful Wall Street practice in the financial market failed. We should question the financial development model of Wall Street. The development of emerging markets cannot completely copy the Wall Street model. The loan crisis has a great impact on the United States, Wall Street, and the world. The starting figurine of this financial crisis comes from the most developed Wall Street in the financial industry. If we examine the reasons and study it, countries like the United States should not have an external factors for development and it should be exactly itself. Im reminds us what is the problem? It may be the financial development model of Wall Street finally created a magnitude 10 earthquake in this financial industry. It also created the worst financial crisis since World War II. It may be as its development methods, development models and development speeds, etc. It has a very big relationship. So emerging markets reflect or rethink from these angles very profoundly. The development of emerging markets cannot completely copy the Wall Street model. Mathered by others as I hope that the emerging market will not be open, and it must be closed. This is not the meaning. It is not to say that the financial industry should not be open, the financial market should not be open, but how to open it, how to make this emerging financial market more local and safer, especially to make it better without hurting others. Under a global trend, considering such a problem. You should not hurt others better. You cannot make a lot of money like a sub -loan company. It hurts the whole world and pays him the world. This development model is not desirable. The practice is the standard for testing truth. We still believe in this sentence. The most powerful Wall Street practice in the financial market has failed. If practice is the standard for testing truth, we should challenge the financial development model of Wall Street. The international market game rules may also change. The rules of the international market in the past were the king of the international market, and the loser was the king. Risks to the smallest, the former disadvantaged group, including China.
Section 4: Entity and virtual economy Summary of the development of the financial market must not leave the real economy too far. Virtual currency and virtual market value are not wealth, but Risk is the foreshadowing of crisis. Is from this subprime mortgage crisis, we re -examine the overall development ideas and development concepts of emerging markets in China. I want to ask five issues from five concepts: first, the real economy and the virtual economy should not be too far; 2. How to understand financial liberalization; 3. What do the financial service industry do? 4. The puzzles brought about by the US dollar's international currency system; 5. The rules of the international markets should have some new thinking. . The real economy and the virtual economy should not be too far. We analyze it in the secondary loan crisis, which is the crisis brought by the asset value bubble. The so -called asset value bubble is the asset value and price far away. The bubbles of the secondary loan crisis include many categories. I attribute it to the beginning of the credit bubble, the bubble of the product, the capital foam, the price foam, the market value foam, forming a long foam chain, the bottom layer, the bottom layer The mortgage loan is the largest credit bubble. Why do you say it is a credit bubble? Because mortgage loans are credit products, it should be loaned to people with credit, while sub -loan loans mortgage loans to people without credit or low credit. And there are many discounts that increase credit risk, such as zero down payment, and no principal loan. Of course, it is the game of financial engineers. I need not say it here. The secondary loan is actually a huge credit bubble. It blows a large bubble. He was originally a credit person and became a reputation, so he became a very dangerous thing. According to the reputation bubble of 15,000 yuan, it creates a 2 trillion securitized product, and then has nearly trillion yuan of bond mortgage vouchers. Nearly trillion credit breach products are the so -called CDS. The well -known company Carey Fund, which has closed down in the secondary loan crisis, has more than 600 million capitals, but the leveraged margin puts its assets to more than 20 billion, and the multiple of leverage has reached 32 times. When the secondary loan crisis occurs, the market is unstable, and the deposit will be supplemented immediately. At that time, it could not be paid. The liquidity risk of the audience did not borrow it at all. Famous. The most important thing is that these things called products have no real value. Except for virtual prices and market value, there is no price behind, and there is no real wealth. The relationship with the real economy is basically not. The secondary loan is still a real economy, but this big bubble is extended, and it has nothing to do with the real economy during the extension process. It has nothing to do with pricing. A bubble, trillions, or even one trillion trillion bubbles, far from the real economy. So what is more serious in the large foam chain manufactured in sub -loan? Because there are only two results in the end of the huge bubble. The first result is that like it is now, the bubble is broken, hundreds of trillions of virtual wealth is gone, and the financial crisis is immediately issued. . Another result is that the Federal Reserve wants to save the market and prints a lot of banknotes. As a result, global inflation is inflation. Many financial capital pushes oil and grain prices. So the virtual part of the development of the financial market must not leave the real economy too far. Virtual currency and virtual market value are not wealth, but risks, and the foreshadowing of crisis. S especially in emerging countries, Wall Street is still unable to escape. Emerging markets are not enough to intersect with financial capital in the economic foundation and the corresponding economic system. In emerging market development should be down -to -earth. In at least a long time, the value of listed companies and the value growth of debt issuance companies should be consolidated as the basis for growth. The standard market is the first revelation of the sub -loan crisis, which is the issue we need to think deeply. The virtual economy cannot be too far away from the real economy. It is very crisis in the end. The result of the result is seen, all of which are endured this thing.
Section 5: Financial liberalization Overview: explosive ways such as subprime loans to promote financial liberalization in emerging markets is obviously not in the development law of financial liberalization, and it is also very very very very very unsafe. . Re -understand financial liberalization. There have been many arguments about financial liberalization and globalization. S financial liberalization has always been controversial. These disputes have a misunderstanding. When the supporting party is promoting the globalization of financial capital, the more statement is to use industrial capital, that is, the concept of direct investment to emphasize the positive effect brought by the capital flow, and use direct investment to promote the positive and external effects of capital flow into the national economic development. As a strong support for the global flow of abstract capital. It does not clearly distinguish between direct investment capital and financial capital, or the different capital attributes of securities investment capital, and the different impacts brought about. The opposition does see the negative external effect of the global flow of financial capital, but these views are often distorted into a non -mainstream sound against globalization and financial liberalization, without sufficient interpretation and broader discussion. In fact, in a more accurate sense, financial liberalization should promote the global free flow of financial capital. If financial capital and industrial capital, or direct investment capital is not the same concept, not the same category. The win -win conclusion brought by the free flow of capital supported by international trade theory is based on industrial investment capital, not a capital of any type. Financial investment capital has completely different attributes and operating models from industrial capital. Therefore, the flow of financial capital cannot reach the result of industrial capital. Therefore, the international trade theory demonstration, the free flow of capital is concluded that the economic development of various countries around the world is concluded. The free flow of financial capital cannot be fully established. Essence The global flow of financial capital cannot be mixed with the flow of industrial capital. Mastering financial liberalization is equivalent to the left and right flow of capital, and the concept of stealing is suspected. The global flow of direct investment capital is different from the goal of financial capital global flow. The effects are different and the results are different. In the basic attributes of direct investment capital, direct investment in capital inflows, the combination of capital and low wage labor, increase labor productivity, help the effective allocation of capital, maximize capital effectiveness, and promote economic growth. For countries around the world, especially developing countries, should have positive significance in any stage of development. Both theoretical and practical demonstration is obtained. In the early days of China's reform and opening up, many multinational companies and Hong Kong and Taiwan enterprises came to China to build a joint venture. Later, a wholly -owned company, car, home appliances, copy machines, heavy machinery, etc. The result of complete implementation has been questioned, but these direct investment capital accompanies more or less technologies, which can not be ignored for promoting China's economic growth. Including the large -scale transfer of global industries, the export processing and manufacturing industry forced to come to China, and promoted the general consumer goods, clothing, shoes and hats, toys, which China became a major trading country. Proud things, exporting companies are now facing the pain of industrial upgrading structure adjustment, but the initial contribution of these industry direct investment capital should leave a strong stroke in the process of China's economic development. If financial capital is pursuing the so -called high -risk and high returns. Financial capital is not the average benefit of the capital society through the investment industry and the growth of industrial wealth creation. This is a more distinction between financial capital and direct capital capital. The attributes of financial capital determine that financial investment capital is actually pursuing high risks, because only high risks have high returns. Gambling with high risk to bet on "high yields". One of the reasons for the loan crisis is the result of the pursuit of risk preferences such as investment financial capital. The subprime mortgage crisis is to pursue high -risk and high returns to be manufactured by the demand of financial investment capital. For many emerging market countries, you need to invest directly in capital, but you have not been able to play high -risk games, and you can't play such high -risk games. The financial investment capital is involved prematurely, and the ups and downs of the economy may be inadequate. In fact, this high -risk game can not play too much even in developed countries. For example, Wall Street, the most mature market, the strongest financial industry. However, the risk of the transition of financial capital, making a subprime crisis is tantamount to playing fire. For emerging market countries, according to the development of the economic and financial markets, the scale of financial investment capital should be gradually expanded. The inflows of financial capital must match the economic development stages of various countries, the level of financial services, financial risk management, the depth of the financial market, the degree of control, strength and maturity, and cannot surpass the development level. I we must realize that the global capital freedom flow of international trade theory is not the same concept as the free flow of financial capital, and we cannot be confused. The flow of financial capital cannot impose game rules of developed countries to developing countries. With the absolute advantages of the financial service industry, developed economies will be promoted to developing countries unilaterally. It is unfair and dangerous. The explosive ways to promote financial liberalization in emerging markets are obviously not in line with the development law of financial liberalization, and it is also very unsafe. The image of American President Bush is drunk Wall Street. Emerging markets cannot be done by drunk man. : The role of the financial service industry Overview: The development of the financial service industry should be transferred from the expansion of the size of the virtual currency to return to the basic function of the "main business" of the basic functions of the financial market. Essence . What exactly do the financial service industry do? Like Wall Street's financial service industry is the market value of foaming foam, in accordance with the principle of high risk and high yields, manufacturing such foam products still return to the industrial category of the basic service industry, strengthen service awareness, provide true financial services, create good investment The environment of financing? Because of providing real services with freedom, the financial service industry has economic value and contribution to GDP. It is not good to provide services like a secondary bubble chain. Not only does it have a positive significance for the economy, but it may also push the economy to decline. The higher the level of this service industry, the greater the foam created, the greater the risk of manufacturing. In the end, not only does it have no resources to optimize, promote economic growth, but also breaks the economy, and it is also in a unique place. Belsden and Lehman brothers are the largest investment banks in bond derivatives in the bond market. Virtual value services provided the most institutions. Lehman has recently reported to be acquired and turned into Belsden second. So we raised this issue, whether the development of the financial service industry should be returned from the expansion of the scale of virtual currency. In particular, the development direction of emerging markets in a long period of time should be strong in the "main business" of the basic functions of the financial market. Can't help but correct the karma. Adhering to how the financial services are providing symmetrical information, cultivating growth companies with growth, and helping investors find the most valuable investment companies and bond issuance companies. Complete the basic functions of the vehicle, first, optimize the allocation of resources, and the scarce resources are allocated to the growth industry and company; the second is to attract investment, so that resources can be configured and promote economic growth. Instead of creating too much, there is no value growth. It is only zero -sum game derivatives In order to complete the main business of these two major functions, financial services have a lot of things to do. For emerging markets, at this stage, the development of the financial market at the current level of economic development should be based on the "foundation" based on the foundation? First, the most basic part of the financial market can be continuously appreciated. The market part of the real wealth creation is high -quality listed companies and high -quality corporate debt issuance companies. Only such high -quality companies exist. The performance of listed companies and corporate bond issuance companies continues to grow, and the foundation of the financial market will gradually be consolidated. The second foundation to promote the improvement of the market system is that the market is more transparent and fair. The value of the service industry is reflected in the contribution of economic growth and improved in the construction process of the financial market. The financial service industry must also have social responsibility. Social responsibility is not just one thousandth of the thousandths of money and one ten thousandths. This recovery responsibility is to maximize your interests and do not harm the interests of others. Economics believes that the world's resources are scarce, limited, how to optimize the allocation of resource allocation and maximize the efficiency of resources. After comparing the resource optimization configuration with before the optimization configuration, the industry is the goal reached after the optimization of resource optimization. It can improve the situation of some people to better improve, and some people's situation will not be worse. Therefore, regardless of the maximization of their own interests, regardless of other people, it is not the goal of the pursuit of the market economy. Especially under the global pattern, when a country and a region seek benefits, the interests of other countries cannot be used, otherwise the result will make it counterproductive.
Section 7: The US dollar system Overview: There is a very critical factor among the international financial system, which is back with fair financial liberalization. This is the monetary system of the US dollar. . There is a very critical factor in the middle of the international financial system, which is back with fair financial liberalization. This is the currency system of the US dollar. In the 1970s, the Bretton Forest's "golden -based" currency system disintegrated, and the exchange rate and interest rate fluctuated sharply, causing great global turmoil and risk. The US economy still dominates the world economy, and the international monetary system has rapidly continued its connection with the US dollar. It is not based on gold (181,5.58,3.20%, bar), and the US dollar as the benchmark. The Asian US dollar market, the European US dollar market, debt US dollar, asset price US dollars, large commodities are priced in the US dollar, and the exchange rate is linked to the US dollar to settle in the US dollar. The US dollar -based international currency system makes the United States equivalent to the global bank. The is a huge unreasonable here. If the status of central banks in the United States is a real world, its independence and neutrality will also have certain fairness in the world. However, the Central Bank of the United States has formulated monetary policy based on the US economy. If the US economy and financial markets change and the corresponding changes in the US monetary policy will cause huge uncertainty to the world. This determines that the global economy is only looking towards the head of the horse. In fact, it is the fate of the horse head of the US economy. The US dollar dollars of dollars are around the world, the global economy. Emerging capital flowing in flow is significantly related to the US dollar currency value. The debt crisis, the currency crisis, the oil crisis, and the food crisis of the world's emerging market countries are all related to the US dollar and the US economy. For example, the 90 -year crisis in Mexico is due to currency mismatch, debt is denominated in the US dollar, and the product is priced at the local currency. When the US dollar appreciates the appreciation of the local currency, the debt crisis broke out. The Thailand, when large -scale capital flows out, the local currency is replaced with the US dollar, and the outflow of the currency crisis exceeds the US dollar foreign exchange reserves. If Thailand is also the same as the United States, the currency crisis will not happen in the international currency in Taiba. The real estate of the United States in the 1980s. A square agreement, the yen appreciated, the US dollar depreciated by nearly 200%relative to the yen, and the RB people immediately withdrew from the US real estate market. The United States easily recovered the loss. This Asian financial crisis of the Philippine Asian financial crisis suddenly dropped from $ 1100 last year to $ 740, and members should be the depreciation of Piso to the US dollar. The national strength of a country has changed with the change of the US dollar currency value. The US Treasury bonds in China's foreign exchange reserves are defined with the US dollar currency value to define the losses of foreign exchange reserves and developed countries generally are not prone to debt crisis. For example, Europe, because its debt is priced at the euro, which is determined by the international status of the euro's international hard currency. The euro pricing can be accepted. This international monetary system is very unfavorable to the financial liberalization process of emerging markets. Monetary mismatch occurs in developing countries because of the international currency system. The subprime crisis, the United States and Europe immediately launched a strong monetary manufacturing mechanism, saving financial institutions at the expense, stabilized the market and stabilized the economy. The national central bank status of the central bank of the United States, the status of a quasi -global central bank like the United Kingdom and Europe, is their country and region triggered a global financial crisis. Financial system and economy. When the economic crisis broke out, this "right" was very critical. In August last year, the sub -loan crisis broke out worldwide. Because the president of the United Kingdom believed that financial institutions were responsible for the fire, government assistance would cause moral risks. The method of rescue and adherence to the "risk" principle. The central bank's extrusion that has not encountered in the UK has almost dragged the British economy. Later, the British Bank of England changed its position and nationalized Beiyan Bank to save capital to save London's financial market. We should see that assuming that Thailand could also issue money, the history of the Asian financial crisis may be rewritten. Unfortunately, Thailand is not. This cruel reality tells us that emerging markets are weak financial groups. The process of financial liberalization must be matched with the stages of economic development and the financial system. Otherwise, once the crisis is triggered, it is impossible to obtain the US dollar system as the backing of the US dollar system as a backing of the subprime crisis. . Another warning, the loose monetary policy implemented in the early 21st century to treat a loose monetary policy for the treatment of the new economic crisis. It created global liquidity and global assets through global and financial liberalization. The currency form of the price bubble, the long -term low interest rate is also one of the initials of the subprime crisis. The global reserve currency that rescue the subprime crisis, especially the loose monetary policy of the US dollar, will bring a new global economic crisis again. While responding to the current international situation, emerging markets must notice the possibility of potential global economic crisis. The United States issued currency, if it does not exceed the border, or the promotion of financial globalization, the US monetary policy may be free from the perspective of adjusting the domestic economy. However, the global flowing capital is pervasive and incompatible with investment opportunities, which may not be fully recovered by the Fed's interest rate increase, especially the currency created in the process of financial liberalization has penetrated into all corners of the world, globally globally, and global The ramming may not be mobilized by the US monetary policy. In fact, a problem of absence of a corresponding global financial system is implicit. Under the US dollar -based currency system, the United States can issue currency, but under the trend of financial globalization and informatization, there is no matching global financial system to reasonably and effectively manage these global surplus capital, as well as global excessive global excessive capitals. Problems brought by flow. The global lack of corresponding financial systems to adjust and prevent the risks and crises that this new issue may bring. Is after the Asian financial crisis, the establishment of a new global financial system problem has been repeatedly raised. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) assumes that it is a rescue agency of the global crisis. However, the role of IMF, as the "last lender" of the international community, is more rescue of the crisis afterwards. Moreover, many policies restrictions on the rescue plan of international organizations are more theoretically reasonable rather than practical feasibility. S especially in the economic development mode, approach and process of developing countries and market economy systems that are not mature, the theory of the process of continuous reform and traditional development economics is far from. In accordance with the rescue plan formulated by the national debt crisis and ideas of rescue of South America, the international organizations are mainly due to the opening of the Asian economic crisis. The crisis of crisis that caused the economic crisis cannot truly and effectively save the crisis. In fact, to varying degrees, it has an exacerbation of the crisis. For example, Indonesia, excessively tightening government spending, accelerated the economic recession, accelerated bankruptcy, and finally caused social turmoil and regime change. , in order to protect yourself, there have been some subtle changes in the world pattern. The discussion of a unified currency in Europe, the euro, and the discussion of the foreign exchange joint defense mechanism in Asia. Globalization has a signs of regionalization, regionalization, and even trade protectionism to a certain extent. Is this progress or regression and not to say whether it is really functional. It may also be the development of the world. Thirty years of Hedong, forty years of Hexi, it has changed. In fact, it is unknown to a spiral cycle. At least, people are trying to protect their own interests in various ways to avoid the impact of new currency expression forms with excess liquidity. China needs to understand that the international monetary system is a very complicated problem. Under such an international environment and economic pattern, this is not a problem in China. It is a global problem. changed. The short term, China should adhere to the principle of doing something, using international multilateral platforms to protect its own interests and win -win. In the long run, China needs to make a comprehensive economic structure adjustment, adhere to the development rhythm of financial liberalization that is in line with China's national conditions, increase the elasticity of the economic system, and maintain stable economic growth. "In the global financial system, the best self -precautions to the crisis. This is a very complicated problem. It is not a country, especially developing countries. It can change this thing, so take measures to protect themselves. I actually made a lot of good suggestions. I don't care about it. This is the fourth question.
International market flow rules. First of all, the problem of financial market supervision, in the current market, is it insufficient supervision or excessive supervision.
Prior to the outbreak of the loan crisis, the speculation of hedge funds has led to the ups and downs of the international financial market, which has attracted the attention of international recovery. Germany and France advocate strict supervision, and the United States and Britain's right are not conducive to the development of the financial market. It also advocates that after the Enable incident is formulated, "Sax Fa". As a result, he indulged the mad speculation of hedge funds and "achieved" the subprime crisis.
The brutal facts prove that financial liberalization is not free to do whatever you want. The cost of not in place is very heavy. Strict prudential supervision should be synchronized with the development of financial liberalization. Supervision is not intervention.
and recently believed that CEOs of some international financial institutions should ride to justice. The manufacturer of the subprime mortgage bubble is no different from fraud. Selling virtual wealth as property to investors should bear legal responsibility.
If the foam product is defined as "property", you must protect property rights. The foam is broken, and "property" and "disappear" should be responsible. Investors should be responsible, bubble manufacturers should be more responsible. Related legal and systems need to be formulated, sanctions and restraint. Maintain fair financial order and economic order.
Woman government should strengthen the forward -looking supervision of the foam, rather than the huge cost of spending after the bubble is shattered, including the rescue of huge moral risks.
The impact on the US economy and the global economy cannot be judged so far. During the formation of the foam, the foam was pierced instead of waiting for the huge blasting of the foam expansion, which minimized the loss. In the past, the old generations advocated not to control the bubble, and said that the foam would be formed. The fact is that after the foam is formed, the situation will not be controlled. Whether you should innovate thinking about regulatory ideas.
The game rules in the international financial market should be revised. Financial capital cannot be large -scale finance markets that are priced at pricing for relationships. Otherwise, disrupt economic order and disturb the financial market. The most important thing is that the large -scale financial commodity market of financial capital affects the basic price formation mechanism that determines the balance price of commodities, which violates the basic principles of economics and greatly distorted the price formation mechanism of the commodity.
The surveys made by the Chicago Commodity Exchange at the request of the US Congress showed that the recent increase in oil prices by 70%was due to the promotion of speculative capital. These financial securities capital does not have any demand for oil, and does not require oil supply. Pure speculation prices make money. Therefore, speculative capital has a strong motivation to promote the rise in oil prices. Recently, there have been reports that the Chicago Commodity Exchange's survey report has improved, with 81%of non -industry transactions.
The market for financial capital or speculative capital is an asset market, not a general commodity market. In other words, there is no effectiveness of this market at all. It is impossible to reach the balance of supply and demand by the satisfaction of the use of the product, thereby forming a balanced price. The speculative capital is not separated from the commodity market, and the prerequisite for the basic price theory of economics is destroyed. As a result, speculative capital uses the demand supply relationship that seems to be the same, and continuously pushes the price. The breakthrough of the new order of global finance may start from the relative division of the commodity market and the asset market.
The commodity market, including the commodity market, should be separated from pure investment markets and allow hedge funds to enter.
For example, if China forms a exchange rate mechanism based on supply and demand relationship, it cannot be subject to interference from the NDF market with no RMB and no RMB market.
The financial capital does not participate in any actual economic activities, and the demand for financial activities for monetary functions belongs to "speculative demand". Speculative demand is not like the needs of ordinary commodities, and the utility is limited to reach a balanced level. After the supply of goods increases to a certain degree, after fully meets the demand for maximizing utility, the market will reach balanced supply and demand, and the price will be stable at the level of supply and demand. The speculative demand is actually "making money". The effective function of "making money" should be infinite, and there is no balanced price.
we noticed that "speculative demand", especially the "speculative demand" of the RMB in the international market, has no demand for the renminbi at all, and does not require the supply of RMB. The NDF market is finally conducted by the US dollar transaction, which is a "game" or "gambling" in the exchange rate price of RMB to the US dollar.
So relying on supply and demand relationships to determine the price of the price and exchange rate, and the financial capital of the financing book exported hedging demand should restrict the entry of large -scale financial capital, otherwise it will seriously disturb the market order.
The securitized product is decentralized risks. A bank securitization product is the risk of decentralized stamp banks. All bank loans are securitized. The securitization product of 100 million products, the market value of the product exceeds the total amount of GDP, is not decentralized. Especially if the holders of all products are the same in the end, which means that the spacing of risks is given. It is just different risks to each part. As a result, a systematic risk is the risk of the overall market.
It is like the exhaust emissions of each car, but the tail gas emissions of the three million cars are pollution. Especially when the space for emissions is given.
This in the middle of the statistics, there is a famous conclusion in the middle, the results of small samples and large samples are different. Large theorem, small samples are divergent, and large samples are converged. A single "innovative" product is the purpose of the designed, but the scale cannot be enlarged infinitely. Any product should have design capacity, and if the production capacity limit is forcibly increased production, safety is needed. The transaction system, the transaction error occurs, and there is no problem in the operation program. The reason is that the transaction energy of the unit time is exceeded. The feedback of the transaction information is a completely correct operation that leads to serious mistakes. The Tokyo Exchange has occurred several times that suddenly stopping the transaction, which is related to the maximum design capacity of the trading system.
The subprime crisis is also a foam of a foam of a financial innovation without risk.
The concepts to change. First of all, financial innovation still needs to return to the basic concept. Financial innovation cannot eliminate risks. The gentleness is that it can only manage the risks. Therefore, we must have the setting of the total capacity of the passing risk of financial product innovation. Financial innovation exceeds market capacity, that is, to create system risks, create market risks, and create a financial crisis.
Secondly, starting from the basic role of financial innovation risks, the financial derivative product market is a zero -sum game. Therefore, derivative products should be launched with the goal of hedging risk, not very suitable for the goal of investment tools. The characteristics of leverage transactions are amplifying funds and amplifying income while amplifying risks.
The comparative advantage of the financial service industry in developed countries is very large. The intermediaries that provide all -round financial services are financial institutions in the United States and Europe, which promotes financial liberalization to meet the economic interests of strong financial countries. The United States and Europe have huge motivations to comprehensively promote the rapid expansion of financial globalization, especially to emerging markets. Take explosive global financial expansion.
The core content of the so -called financial bang is to promote emerging markets to accelerate the comprehensive opening of the financial market, including, banks, securities, insurance, all financial fields, relax the entry threshold for foreign financial companies, relax capital control, and flow capital freely. Finally, the globalization of the domestic financial system is realized.
This, this comprehensive, explosive global financial expansion is very dangerous for emerging markets. The financial liberalization process of emerging markets should be developed in an orderly manner. Gradually developing, not going forward, not being too excited, can't learn to go, just want to run.
The admission to the appropriate proportion of foreign banking institutions, truly providing valuable financial service products, such as the financial advisory service of listed companies, or the value improvement of the value of listed companies, the risk management of banks and other financial institutions Technical and consulting services, more flexible reform of the exchange rate mechanism, the local currency is gradually exchanged, and so on. In short, it is necessary to speed up the construction and improvement of the domestic financial system, and it is very important to synchronize with financial opening. In the process of financial liberalization, it is necessary to control any external impact status.
If re -thinking about these issues, not only the bubble crisis will be manufactured again and again, but emerging market countries will pass a passive crisis and pay for the crisis. More importantly, re -thinking about the reasons for the manufacturing subprime crisis and the deep problems of financial development, and continue to follow the crisis ideas and the financial development of emerging markets. Essence It is necessary to protect yourself, establish a fair international financial system suitable for the development of the national financial industry at the stage of development, and emerging markets must economic participation in the formulation of game rules. Like the multilateral negotiation consultation of the WTO, the formulation of international trade rules, the establishment of a multilateral negotiation mechanism, considering the interests of various countries, and establishing a new order of international finance. The rules cannot be formulated by strong countries and regions.
The China has successfully avoided the impact of the Asian financial crisis, and it should be able to certainly have a certain degree of shock -absorbing subprime crisis. We need to study our own experience and the lessons of the subprime crisis to make China a better financial country internationally and in some countries. Other countries are not harmed. Domestic demand to increase grain price
"Looking" reporter: How should China lose its loss in the subprime crisis? How does Chinese finance innovate and how to innovate?
Question: In the case of the subprime crisis, how can China take some countermeasures to minimize its loss? The so -called financial innovation is a very important aspect of the financial industry. Within the scope of our cognitive, the most important point of financial innovation is derivatives, which is a virtual thing. You have said that the economy of financial innovation Wall Street has collapsed. How can Chinese finance innovate and innovate under this premise?
Zuo Xiaolei: My point is not necessarily right. How to prevent the financial crisis in China, I just said that it may have been shocking its impact. Its influence on China has discussed more exports because of foreign needs.
The impact of this external demand, I think we have no direct way because it is an external problem and we have no problem ourselves.
Exports are affected by the subprime crisis, the economic affected by my country's economy, and the decline in foreign demand. Then you use domestic demand. From the perspective of economic growth, foreign demand has declined and exports are affected. Then our domestic demand increases.
Os how to stimulate domestic demand? There are many topics. I said this topic at the Changan Club today. What stimulates domestic demand to stimulate?
The stimulus general consumption, which is generally consumption, mainly farmers and low -income groups have a lot of room for growth. From the perspective of cities, general consumer goods are still relatively satisfied. If you are concerned about consumption, you must pay attention to low -income groups and rural areas.
How to improve their consumer level? The most critical of their income is to grow, because these low -income groups have a lot of consumption, you add 200 yuan to you, he takes these 200 yuan to buy, drink, buy and wear. At 1,000 yuan, he may not take 50 yuan because he has been satisfied with basic consumption. In this case, it is necessary to increase the low -income income in rural areas.
So how to increase the income of low -income people? The government has asset subsidies, as well as free rural education, and the reduction in expenditure is also a increase in income. This is one aspect, but this is not enough. Because you can't subsidize him forever, and your subsidies to his production materials, now the growth of fertilizers and pesticides is very large, and your subsidy cannot keep up with its rise. Therefore, if you do n’t make money, you do n’t plant food, so you do n’t plant food. This will also affect the safety of food. You can only have a long and stable growth mechanism for him to plant food.
we should encourage him to plant food and increase his income, regardless of which perspective, and increase the price of grain prices. The rise in prices allows him to make money to make money and earn this way. In this way, the income of farmers will grow, and the consumption of farmers will definitely increase, and it will definitely bring economic growth contribution.
It the acquisition of food prices has increased, what about inflation? We say that the government can not increase the sales price when the flow is increased.
For example, the purchase price increases two dollars, and the sales price does not increase and sells the original price, but the government supplements him for two dollars. Where does the money come from? We now raise oil prices, and the price of oil price is not reduced to reduce Sinopec subsidies. We will take the financial funds to subsidize the price of food and food in circulation, because food prices and food prices account for a very large proportion of CPIs. After we subsidize this way, the CPI will not rise, and inflation will not rise.
The as farmers' income increased, continued to grow, consumption growth, the economy also rose, and this subsidy method was also very fair in terms of transfer payment fairness. Everyone eats food and food, and it is very good in terms of fairness and benefits. I say this hopes to be adopted. I think we can take this way to do this way.
The innovation in China is like this. We can't kill it in one pole. Innovation is wrong, it is not the meaning. I said just now that the scale is limited.
The first development of derivative products was not launched with the concept of investment products. In the 1970s, derivative products have developed greatly. It is to prevent the risk of changes in exchange rates and interest rates. Therefore, many derivative products were born at that time. It was about how to help export enterprises to prevent exchange rate risks and help enterprises to prevent interest rate risks. Essence But it can ensure that trading companies will not lose money, and Wall Street products have developed like this for a long time.
But in the 21st century, it sounded well to flourish, and it was not good to say that derivative products began to develop crazy. China may prevent the risk of derivative products for a long time.
The ideas for the launch of our stock index futures are not right, because our market is a unilateral market, only the market can make money, and the market declines cannot make money. Therefore make money.
The risk of stock index futures as an investment product. At the beginning, we must prevent risks. At the beginning, retail investors cannot go in. Why can't we enter? We must first correct this concept. For a long time, this product is to prevent risks.
. Our market is very primitive, and our investors must continue to mature. At this time, we must be particularly careful. We must not innovate risks and we must prevent risks. It is definitely not that we do n’t want to innovate. I mean that I ca n’t myths, I can disperse risks but cannot myths. It turns out that you will make a big risk when you myths have myths. This is my opinion that I don't necessarily be right. Economists are too rational.
It domestic demand to increase grain price
"Looking" Reporter: How should China lose its loss to the smallest in the subprime crisis? How does Chinese finance innovate and how to innovate?
Question: In the case of the subprime crisis, how can China take some countermeasures to minimize its loss? The so -called financial innovation is a very important aspect of the financial industry. Within the scope of our cognitive, the most important point of financial innovation is derivatives, which is a virtual thing. You have said that the economy of financial innovation Wall Street has collapsed. How can Chinese finance innovate and innovate under this premise?
Zuo Xiaolei: My point is not necessarily right. How to prevent the financial crisis in China, I just said that it may have been shocking its impact. Its influence on China has discussed more exports because of foreign needs.
The impact of this external demand, I think we have no direct way because it is an external problem and we have no problem ourselves.
Exports are affected by the subprime crisis, the economic affected by my country's economy, and the decline in foreign demand. Then you use domestic demand. From the perspective of economic growth, foreign demand has declined and exports are affected. Then our domestic demand increases.
Os how to stimulate domestic demand? There are many topics. I said this topic at the Changan Club today. What stimulates domestic demand to stimulate?
The stimulus general consumption, which is generally consumption, mainly farmers and low -income groups have a lot of room for growth. From the perspective of cities, general consumer goods are still relatively satisfied. If you are concerned about consumption, you must pay attention to low -income groups and rural areas.
How to improve their consumer level? The most critical of their income is to grow, because these low -income groups have a lot of consumption, you add 200 yuan to you, he takes these 200 yuan to buy, drink, buy and wear. At 1,000 yuan, he may not take 50 yuan because he has been satisfied with basic consumption. In this case, it is necessary to increase the low -income income in rural areas.
So how to increase the income of low -income people? The government has asset subsidies, as well as free rural education, and the reduction in expenditure is also a increase in income. This is one aspect, but this is not enough. Because you can't subsidize him forever, and your subsidies to his production materials, now the growth of fertilizers and pesticides is very large, and your subsidy cannot keep up with its rise. Therefore, if you do n’t make money, you do n’t plant food, so you do n’t plant food. This will also affect the safety of food. You can only have a long and stable growth mechanism for him to plant food.
we should encourage him to plant food and increase his income, regardless of which perspective, and increase the price of grain prices. The rise in prices allows him to make money to make money and earn this way. In this way, the income of farmers will grow, and the consumption of farmers will definitely increase, and it will definitely bring economic growth contribution.
It the acquisition of food prices has increased, what about inflation? We say that the government can not increase the sales price when the flow is increased.
For example, the purchase price increases two dollars, and the sales price does not increase and sells the original price, but the government supplements him for two dollars. Where does the money come from? We now raise oil prices, and the price of oil price is not reduced to reduce Sinopec subsidies. We will take the financial funds to subsidize the price of food and food in circulation, because food prices and food prices account for a very large proportion of CPIs. After we subsidize this way, the CPI will not rise, and inflation will not rise.
The as farmers' income increased, continued to grow, consumption growth, the economy also rose, and this subsidy method was also very fair in terms of transfer payment fairness. Everyone eats food and food, and it is very good in terms of fairness and benefits. I say this hopes to be adopted. I think we can take this way to do this way.
The innovation in China is like this. We can't kill it in one pole. Innovation is wrong, it is not the meaning. I said just now that the scale is limited.
The first development of derivative products was not launched with the concept of investment products. In the 1970s, derivative products have developed greatly. It is to prevent the risk of changes in exchange rates and interest rates. Therefore, many derivative products were born at that time. It was about how to help export enterprises to prevent exchange rate risks and help enterprises to prevent interest rate risks. Essence But it can ensure that trading companies will not lose money, and Wall Street products have developed like this for a long time.
But in the 21st century, it sounded well to flourish, and it was not good to say that derivative products began to develop crazy. China may prevent the risk of derivative products for a long time.
The ideas for the launch of our stock index futures are not right, because our market is a unilateral market, only the market can make money, and the market declines cannot make money. Therefore make money.
The risk of stock index futures as an investment product. At the beginning, we must prevent risks. At the beginning, retail investors cannot go in. Why can't we enter? We must first correct this concept. For a long time, this product is to prevent risks.
. Our market is very primitive, and our investors must continue to mature. At this time, we must be particularly careful. We must not innovate risks and we must prevent risks. It is definitely not that we do n’t want to innovate. I mean that I ca n’t myths, I can disperse risks but cannot myths. It turns out that you will make a big risk when you myths have myths. This is my opinion that I don't necessarily be right. Economists are too rational.
p.s I really didn't find the materials in this area .. But I really want to help you .. I just searched it ...
M n ... I suggest you take a look at the evaluation of Dubai's question
and then combine the situation of China .. See if you can summarize what you have .. Anyway, because you only have this idea because you can only have this .. Although I want to help, I can only help you check some information
In fact, you can also check this kind of information. I can also check it ... I am not very knowledgeable .. I didn't get in touch with this financial problem ... Sorry to pull .. I tried my best
Specific problems should be analyzed in detail
It's hard to say
The most powerful Wall Street practice in the financial market failed. We should question the financial development model of Wall Street. The development of emerging markets cannot completely copy the Wall Street model.
The loan crisis has a great impact on the United States, Wall Street, and the world. The starting figurine of this financial crisis comes from the most developed Wall Street in the financial industry. If we examine the reasons and study it, countries like the United States should not have an external factors for development and it should be exactly itself.
Im reminds us what is the problem? It may be the financial development model of Wall Street finally created a magnitude 10 earthquake in this financial industry. It also created the worst financial crisis since World War II. It may be as its development methods, development models and development speeds, etc. It has a very big relationship.
So emerging markets reflect or rethink from these angles very profoundly. The development of emerging markets cannot completely copy the Wall Street model.
Mathered by others as I hope that the emerging market will not be open, and it must be closed. This is not the meaning. It is not to say that the financial industry should not be open, the financial market should not be open, but how to open it, how to make this emerging financial market more local and safer, especially to make it better without hurting others.
Under a global trend, considering such a problem. You should not hurt others better. You cannot make a lot of money like a sub -loan company. It hurts the whole world and pays him the world. This development model is not desirable.
The practice is the standard for testing truth. We still believe in this sentence. The most powerful Wall Street practice in the financial market has failed. If practice is the standard for testing truth, we should challenge the financial development model of Wall Street. The international market game rules may also change.
The rules of the international market in the past were the king of the international market, and the loser was the king. Risks to the smallest, the former disadvantaged group, including China.
Section 4: Entity and virtual economy
Summary of the development of the financial market must not leave the real economy too far. Virtual currency and virtual market value are not wealth, but Risk is the foreshadowing of crisis.
Is from this subprime mortgage crisis, we re -examine the overall development ideas and development concepts of emerging markets in China. I want to ask five issues from five concepts: first, the real economy and the virtual economy should not be too far; 2. How to understand financial liberalization; 3. What do the financial service industry do? 4. The puzzles brought about by the US dollar's international currency system; 5. The rules of the international markets should have some new thinking.
. The real economy and the virtual economy should not be too far. We analyze it in the secondary loan crisis, which is the crisis brought by the asset value bubble.
The so -called asset value bubble is the asset value and price far away.
The bubbles of the secondary loan crisis include many categories. I attribute it to the beginning of the credit bubble, the bubble of the product, the capital foam, the price foam, the market value foam, forming a long foam chain, the bottom layer, the bottom layer The mortgage loan is the largest credit bubble.
Why do you say it is a credit bubble? Because mortgage loans are credit products, it should be loaned to people with credit, while sub -loan loans mortgage loans to people without credit or low credit. And there are many discounts that increase credit risk, such as zero down payment, and no principal loan. Of course, it is the game of financial engineers. I need not say it here.
The secondary loan is actually a huge credit bubble. It blows a large bubble. He was originally a credit person and became a reputation, so he became a very dangerous thing. According to the reputation bubble of 15,000 yuan, it creates a 2 trillion securitized product, and then has nearly trillion yuan of bond mortgage vouchers. Nearly trillion credit breach products are the so -called CDS.
The well -known company Carey Fund, which has closed down in the secondary loan crisis, has more than 600 million capitals, but the leveraged margin puts its assets to more than 20 billion, and the multiple of leverage has reached 32 times. When the secondary loan crisis occurs, the market is unstable, and the deposit will be supplemented immediately. At that time, it could not be paid. The liquidity risk of the audience did not borrow it at all. Famous.
The most important thing is that these things called products have no real value. Except for virtual prices and market value, there is no price behind, and there is no real wealth. The relationship with the real economy is basically not.
The secondary loan is still a real economy, but this big bubble is extended, and it has nothing to do with the real economy during the extension process. It has nothing to do with pricing. A bubble, trillions, or even one trillion trillion bubbles, far from the real economy.
So what is more serious in the large foam chain manufactured in sub -loan? Because there are only two results in the end of the huge bubble. The first result is that like it is now, the bubble is broken, hundreds of trillions of virtual wealth is gone, and the financial crisis is immediately issued.
. Another result is that the Federal Reserve wants to save the market and prints a lot of banknotes. As a result, global inflation is inflation. Many financial capital pushes oil and grain prices.
So the virtual part of the development of the financial market must not leave the real economy too far. Virtual currency and virtual market value are not wealth, but risks, and the foreshadowing of crisis.
S especially in emerging countries, Wall Street is still unable to escape. Emerging markets are not enough to intersect with financial capital in the economic foundation and the corresponding economic system.
In emerging market development should be down -to -earth. In at least a long time, the value of listed companies and the value growth of debt issuance companies should be consolidated as the basis for growth. The standard market is the first revelation of the sub -loan crisis, which is the issue we need to think deeply.
The virtual economy cannot be too far away from the real economy. It is very crisis in the end. The result of the result is seen, all of which are endured this thing.
Section 5: Financial liberalization
Overview: explosive ways such as subprime loans to promote financial liberalization in emerging markets is obviously not in the development law of financial liberalization, and it is also very very very very very unsafe.
. Re -understand financial liberalization. There have been many arguments about financial liberalization and globalization.
S financial liberalization has always been controversial. These disputes have a misunderstanding. When the supporting party is promoting the globalization of financial capital, the more statement is to use industrial capital, that is, the concept of direct investment to emphasize the positive effect brought by the capital flow, and use direct investment to promote the positive and external effects of capital flow into the national economic development. As a strong support for the global flow of abstract capital. It does not clearly distinguish between direct investment capital and financial capital, or the different capital attributes of securities investment capital, and the different impacts brought about. The opposition does see the negative external effect of the global flow of financial capital, but these views are often distorted into a non -mainstream sound against globalization and financial liberalization, without sufficient interpretation and broader discussion.
In fact, in a more accurate sense, financial liberalization should promote the global free flow of financial capital.
If financial capital and industrial capital, or direct investment capital is not the same concept, not the same category.
The win -win conclusion brought by the free flow of capital supported by international trade theory is based on industrial investment capital, not a capital of any type. Financial investment capital has completely different attributes and operating models from industrial capital. Therefore, the flow of financial capital cannot reach the result of industrial capital. Therefore, the international trade theory demonstration, the free flow of capital is concluded that the economic development of various countries around the world is concluded. The free flow of financial capital cannot be fully established. Essence The global flow of financial capital cannot be mixed with the flow of industrial capital. Mastering financial liberalization is equivalent to the left and right flow of capital, and the concept of stealing is suspected.
The global flow of direct investment capital is different from the goal of financial capital global flow. The effects are different and the results are different.
In the basic attributes of direct investment capital, direct investment in capital inflows, the combination of capital and low wage labor, increase labor productivity, help the effective allocation of capital, maximize capital effectiveness, and promote economic growth. For countries around the world, especially developing countries, should have positive significance in any stage of development. Both theoretical and practical demonstration is obtained. In the early days of China's reform and opening up, many multinational companies and Hong Kong and Taiwan enterprises came to China to build a joint venture. Later, a wholly -owned company, car, home appliances, copy machines, heavy machinery, etc. The result of complete implementation has been questioned, but these direct investment capital accompanies more or less technologies, which can not be ignored for promoting China's economic growth. Including the large -scale transfer of global industries, the export processing and manufacturing industry forced to come to China, and promoted the general consumer goods, clothing, shoes and hats, toys, which China became a major trading country. Proud things, exporting companies are now facing the pain of industrial upgrading structure adjustment, but the initial contribution of these industry direct investment capital should leave a strong stroke in the process of China's economic development.
If financial capital is pursuing the so -called high -risk and high returns. Financial capital is not the average benefit of the capital society through the investment industry and the growth of industrial wealth creation. This is a more distinction between financial capital and direct capital capital. The attributes of financial capital determine that financial investment capital is actually pursuing high risks, because only high risks have high returns. Gambling with high risk to bet on "high yields". One of the reasons for the loan crisis is the result of the pursuit of risk preferences such as investment financial capital. The subprime mortgage crisis is to pursue high -risk and high returns to be manufactured by the demand of financial investment capital.
For many emerging market countries, you need to invest directly in capital, but you have not been able to play high -risk games, and you can't play such high -risk games. The financial investment capital is involved prematurely, and the ups and downs of the economy may be inadequate.
In fact, this high -risk game can not play too much even in developed countries. For example, Wall Street, the most mature market, the strongest financial industry. However, the risk of the transition of financial capital, making a subprime crisis is tantamount to playing fire. For emerging market countries, according to the development of the economic and financial markets, the scale of financial investment capital should be gradually expanded. The inflows of financial capital must match the economic development stages of various countries, the level of financial services, financial risk management, the depth of the financial market, the degree of control, strength and maturity, and cannot surpass the development level.
I we must realize that the global capital freedom flow of international trade theory is not the same concept as the free flow of financial capital, and we cannot be confused. The flow of financial capital cannot impose game rules of developed countries to developing countries. With the absolute advantages of the financial service industry, developed economies will be promoted to developing countries unilaterally. It is unfair and dangerous.
The explosive ways to promote financial liberalization in emerging markets are obviously not in line with the development law of financial liberalization, and it is also very unsafe. The image of American President Bush is drunk Wall Street. Emerging markets cannot be done by drunk man.
: The role of the financial service industry
Overview: The development of the financial service industry should be transferred from the expansion of the size of the virtual currency to return to the basic function of the "main business" of the basic functions of the financial market. Essence
. What exactly do the financial service industry do? Like Wall Street's financial service industry is the market value of foaming foam, in accordance with the principle of high risk and high yields, manufacturing such foam products still return to the industrial category of the basic service industry, strengthen service awareness, provide true financial services, create good investment The environment of financing?
Because of providing real services with freedom, the financial service industry has economic value and contribution to GDP. It is not good to provide services like a secondary bubble chain. Not only does it have a positive significance for the economy, but it may also push the economy to decline. The higher the level of this service industry, the greater the foam created, the greater the risk of manufacturing. In the end, not only does it have no resources to optimize, promote economic growth, but also breaks the economy, and it is also in a unique place.
Belsden and Lehman brothers are the largest investment banks in bond derivatives in the bond market. Virtual value services provided the most institutions. Lehman has recently reported to be acquired and turned into Belsden second.
So we raised this issue, whether the development of the financial service industry should be returned from the expansion of the scale of virtual currency. In particular, the development direction of emerging markets in a long period of time should be strong in the "main business" of the basic functions of the financial market. Can't help but correct the karma. Adhering to how the financial services are providing symmetrical information, cultivating growth companies with growth, and helping investors find the most valuable investment companies and bond issuance companies. Complete the basic functions of the vehicle, first, optimize the allocation of resources, and the scarce resources are allocated to the growth industry and company; the second is to attract investment, so that resources can be configured and promote economic growth. Instead of creating too much, there is no value growth. It is only zero -sum game derivatives
In order to complete the main business of these two major functions, financial services have a lot of things to do.
For emerging markets, at this stage, the development of the financial market at the current level of economic development should be based on the "foundation" based on the foundation? First, the most basic part of the financial market can be continuously appreciated. The market part of the real wealth creation is high -quality listed companies and high -quality corporate debt issuance companies. Only such high -quality companies exist. The performance of listed companies and corporate bond issuance companies continues to grow, and the foundation of the financial market will gradually be consolidated.
The second foundation to promote the improvement of the market system is that the market is more transparent and fair. The value of the service industry is reflected in the contribution of economic growth and improved in the construction process of the financial market.
The financial service industry must also have social responsibility. Social responsibility is not just one thousandth of the thousandths of money and one ten thousandths. This recovery responsibility is to maximize your interests and do not harm the interests of others.
Economics believes that the world's resources are scarce, limited, how to optimize the allocation of resource allocation and maximize the efficiency of resources. After comparing the resource optimization configuration with before the optimization configuration, the industry is the goal reached after the optimization of resource optimization. It can improve the situation of some people to better improve, and some people's situation will not be worse. Therefore, regardless of the maximization of their own interests, regardless of other people, it is not the goal of the pursuit of the market economy. Especially under the global pattern, when a country and a region seek benefits, the interests of other countries cannot be used, otherwise the result will make it counterproductive.
Section 7: The US dollar system
Overview: There is a very critical factor among the international financial system, which is back with fair financial liberalization. This is the monetary system of the US dollar.
. There is a very critical factor in the middle of the international financial system, which is back with fair financial liberalization. This is the currency system of the US dollar.
In the 1970s, the Bretton Forest's "golden -based" currency system disintegrated, and the exchange rate and interest rate fluctuated sharply, causing great global turmoil and risk. The US economy still dominates the world economy, and the international monetary system has rapidly continued its connection with the US dollar. It is not based on gold (181,5.58,3.20%, bar), and the US dollar as the benchmark. The Asian US dollar market, the European US dollar market, debt US dollar, asset price US dollars, large commodities are priced in the US dollar, and the exchange rate is linked to the US dollar to settle in the US dollar. The US dollar -based international currency system makes the United States equivalent to the global bank.
The is a huge unreasonable here. If the status of central banks in the United States is a real world, its independence and neutrality will also have certain fairness in the world. However, the Central Bank of the United States has formulated monetary policy based on the US economy. If the US economy and financial markets change and the corresponding changes in the US monetary policy will cause huge uncertainty to the world. This determines that the global economy is only looking towards the head of the horse. In fact, it is the fate of the horse head of the US economy. The US dollar dollars of dollars are around the world, the global economy.
Emerging capital flowing in flow is significantly related to the US dollar currency value. The debt crisis, the currency crisis, the oil crisis, and the food crisis of the world's emerging market countries are all related to the US dollar and the US economy.
For example, the 90 -year crisis in Mexico is due to currency mismatch, debt is denominated in the US dollar, and the product is priced at the local currency. When the US dollar appreciates the appreciation of the local currency, the debt crisis broke out.
The Thailand, when large -scale capital flows out, the local currency is replaced with the US dollar, and the outflow of the currency crisis exceeds the US dollar foreign exchange reserves. If Thailand is also the same as the United States, the currency crisis will not happen in the international currency in Taiba.
The real estate of the United States in the 1980s. A square agreement, the yen appreciated, the US dollar depreciated by nearly 200%relative to the yen, and the RB people immediately withdrew from the US real estate market. The United States easily recovered the loss.
This Asian financial crisis of the Philippine Asian financial crisis suddenly dropped from $ 1100 last year to $ 740, and members should be the depreciation of Piso to the US dollar. The national strength of a country has changed with the change of the US dollar currency value.
The US Treasury bonds in China's foreign exchange reserves are defined with the US dollar currency value to define the losses of foreign exchange reserves and developed countries generally are not prone to debt crisis. For example, Europe, because its debt is priced at the euro, which is determined by the international status of the euro's international hard currency. The euro pricing can be accepted. This international monetary system is very unfavorable to the financial liberalization process of emerging markets. Monetary mismatch occurs in developing countries because of the international currency system.
The subprime crisis, the United States and Europe immediately launched a strong monetary manufacturing mechanism, saving financial institutions at the expense, stabilized the market and stabilized the economy.
The national central bank status of the central bank of the United States, the status of a quasi -global central bank like the United Kingdom and Europe, is their country and region triggered a global financial crisis. Financial system and economy. When the economic crisis broke out, this "right" was very critical.
In August last year, the sub -loan crisis broke out worldwide. Because the president of the United Kingdom believed that financial institutions were responsible for the fire, government assistance would cause moral risks. The method of rescue and adherence to the "risk" principle. The central bank's extrusion that has not encountered in the UK has almost dragged the British economy. Later, the British Bank of England changed its position and nationalized Beiyan Bank to save capital to save London's financial market.
We should see that assuming that Thailand could also issue money, the history of the Asian financial crisis may be rewritten. Unfortunately, Thailand is not. This cruel reality tells us that emerging markets are weak financial groups. The process of financial liberalization must be matched with the stages of economic development and the financial system. Otherwise, once the crisis is triggered, it is impossible to obtain the US dollar system as the backing of the US dollar system as a backing of the subprime crisis.
. Another warning, the loose monetary policy implemented in the early 21st century to treat a loose monetary policy for the treatment of the new economic crisis. It created global liquidity and global assets through global and financial liberalization. The currency form of the price bubble, the long -term low interest rate is also one of the initials of the subprime crisis.
The global reserve currency that rescue the subprime crisis, especially the loose monetary policy of the US dollar, will bring a new global economic crisis again. While responding to the current international situation, emerging markets must notice the possibility of potential global economic crisis.
The United States issued currency, if it does not exceed the border, or the promotion of financial globalization, the US monetary policy may be free from the perspective of adjusting the domestic economy. However, the global flowing capital is pervasive and incompatible with investment opportunities, which may not be fully recovered by the Fed's interest rate increase, especially the currency created in the process of financial liberalization has penetrated into all corners of the world, globally globally, and global The ramming may not be mobilized by the US monetary policy.
In fact, a problem of absence of a corresponding global financial system is implicit. Under the US dollar -based currency system, the United States can issue currency, but under the trend of financial globalization and informatization, there is no matching global financial system to reasonably and effectively manage these global surplus capital, as well as global excessive global excessive capitals. Problems brought by flow. The global lack of corresponding financial systems to adjust and prevent the risks and crises that this new issue may bring.
Is after the Asian financial crisis, the establishment of a new global financial system problem has been repeatedly raised. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) assumes that it is a rescue agency of the global crisis. However, the role of IMF, as the "last lender" of the international community, is more rescue of the crisis afterwards. Moreover, many policies restrictions on the rescue plan of international organizations are more theoretically reasonable rather than practical feasibility.
S especially in the economic development mode, approach and process of developing countries and market economy systems that are not mature, the theory of the process of continuous reform and traditional development economics is far from. In accordance with the rescue plan formulated by the national debt crisis and ideas of rescue of South America, the international organizations are mainly due to the opening of the Asian economic crisis. The crisis of crisis that caused the economic crisis cannot truly and effectively save the crisis. In fact, to varying degrees, it has an exacerbation of the crisis. For example, Indonesia, excessively tightening government spending, accelerated the economic recession, accelerated bankruptcy, and finally caused social turmoil and regime change.
, in order to protect yourself, there have been some subtle changes in the world pattern. The discussion of a unified currency in Europe, the euro, and the discussion of the foreign exchange joint defense mechanism in Asia. Globalization has a signs of regionalization, regionalization, and even trade protectionism to a certain extent. Is this progress or regression and not to say whether it is really functional. It may also be the development of the world. Thirty years of Hedong, forty years of Hexi, it has changed. In fact, it is unknown to a spiral cycle. At least, people are trying to protect their own interests in various ways to avoid the impact of new currency expression forms with excess liquidity.
China needs to understand that the international monetary system is a very complicated problem. Under such an international environment and economic pattern, this is not a problem in China. It is a global problem. changed.
The short term, China should adhere to the principle of doing something, using international multilateral platforms to protect its own interests and win -win. In the long run, China needs to make a comprehensive economic structure adjustment, adhere to the development rhythm of financial liberalization that is in line with China's national conditions, increase the elasticity of the economic system, and maintain stable economic growth. "In the global financial system, the best self -precautions to the crisis.
This is a very complicated problem. It is not a country, especially developing countries. It can change this thing, so take measures to protect themselves. I actually made a lot of good suggestions. I don't care about it. This is the fourth question.
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